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GDP progress estimated at 5.97pc for FY 2021-22

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Pakistan has estimated the Gross Home Product (GDP) progress within the vary of roughly 6 p.c for the present fiscal yr with the most important contributions of business and companies sectors.

Not like the IMF projection of a 4 p.c GDP progress charge for Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz led authorities has estimated a 5.97 p.c provisional GDP progress charge for the yr 2021-22.

The one hundred and fifth assembly of the Nationwide Accounts Committee to overview the ultimate, revised and provisional estimates of GDP for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively was held on Wednesday beneath the chair of Secretary, MoPD&SI.

The provisional GDP progress charge for the yr 2021-22 is estimated at 5.97% as broad-based progress was witnessed in all sectors of the economic system.

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The expansion of agricultural, industrial and companies sectors is 4.40%, 7.19% and 6.19% respectively. Equally, the expansion of vital crops throughout this yr is 7.24%.

The expansion in manufacturing of vital crops particularly Cotton, Rice, Sugarcane and Maize are estimated at 17.9%, 10.7%, 9.4% and 19.0% respectively.

The cotton crop elevated from 7.1 million bales reported final yr to eight.3 million bales; Rice manufacturing elevated from 8.4 million tons to 9.3 million tons; Sugarcane manufacturing elevated from 81.0 million tons to 88.7 million tons; Maize manufacturing elevated from 8.4 million tons to 10.6 million tons respectively, entire Wheat manufacturing decreased from 27.5 million tons to 26.4 million tons. Different crops confirmed progress of 5.44% primarily due to a rise within the manufacturing of pulses, greens, fodder, oilseeds and fruits. The livestock sector is exhibiting a progress of three.26%. The expansion of forestry is 3.13% and fishing is at 0.35%.

The general industrial sector reveals a rise of seven.19%. The mining and quarrying sector has decreased by 4.47% attributable to a decline within the manufacturing of different minerals in addition to a decline in exploration prices. The Massive Scale Manufacturing business is pushed primarily by QIM information (from July 2021 to March 2022) which reveals a rise of 10.4%. Main contributors to this progress are Meals (11.67%), Tobacco (16.7%), Textile (3.19%), Sporting Attire (33.95%), Wooden Merchandise (157.5%), Chemical compounds (7.79%), Iron & Metal Merchandise (16.55%), Vehicles (54.10%), Furnishings (301.83%) and different manufacturing (37.83%). The electrical energy, fuel and water business reveals a progress of seven.86% primarily attributable to a rise in subsidies in 2021-22. The worth-added within the development business, primarily pushed by construction-related expenditures by industries, has registered a modest progress of three.14% primarily attributable to a rise usually authorities spending.

The companies sector reveals a progress of 6.19%. The wholesale and Retail Commerce business grew by 10.04%. It’s depending on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. The expansion in commerce value-added regarding agriculture, manufacturing and imports stands at 3.99%, 9.82% and 19.93% respectively. Transportation & Storage business has elevated by 5.42% attributable to a rise in gross worth addition of railways (41.85%), air transport (26.56%), highway transport (4.99%) and storage. Lodging and meals companies actions have elevated by 4.07%. Equally, Data and communication elevated by 11.9% attributable to enhancements in telecommunication, pc programming, consultancy and associated actions.

The finance and insurance coverage business reveals an general enhance of 4.93% primarily attributable to a rise in deposits and loans. Actual property actions grew by 3.7% whereas public administration and social safety (basic authorities) actions posted damaging progress of 1.23% attributable to excessive deflators. Training has witnessed a progress of 8.65% attributable to public sector expenditure. Human well being and social work actions additionally elevated by 2.25% attributable to basic authorities expenditures. The provisional progress in different non-public companies is 3.76%.

General, the GDP of the nation at present market costs has reached Rs.66.949 trillion in 2021-22 which has resulted in a rise in per capita revenue from Rs.268,223 in 2020-21 to Rs.314,353 in 2021-22 apart from the quantity of the economic system in {dollars} in 2021-22 stands at $383 billion.

In line with particulars, the assembly additionally up to date the provisional GDP estimates for the yr 2020-21 and revised GDP estimates for the yr 2019-20 introduced within the 104th assembly of the NAC held in January 2022 on the idea of the most recent out there information.

The ultimate progress charge of GDP for the yr 2019-20 has been estimated at -0.94% which was -1.0% within the revised estimates. The revised progress charge of GDP for the yr 2020-21 is 5.74% which was provisionally estimated at 5.57%.

The crop sub-sector has improved from 5.92% to five.96%. The opposite crops have improved from provisional progress of 8.08% to eight.27% in revised estimates. The expansion of the commercial sector within the revised estimates is 7.81% which was 7.79% within the provisional estimates whereas the expansion of the companies sector has improved from 5.7% to six.0%.

Controversy about Chief Economist’s resignation:

Earlier on Wednesday, it emerged that Chief Economist Planning fee Dr Ahmad Zubair resigned from the place owing to exerting stress from the excessive ups of planning and finance ministries on GDP numbers.

Sources on the situation of anonymity mentioned that the Minister for planning and the minister of State for finance Ayesha Ghous Pasha have requested the related individuals within the planning fee to sit down with the principal financial advisor Finance ministry on progress numbers with contending that GDP progress can be round 4% within the present fiscal yr.

When the official of the planning fee acknowledged that they’d made a presentation to the earlier minister for planning that as per the statistics of manufacturing information of assorted sectors signifies that GDP progress can be round 5.5 to six p.c upon this minister of state for finance mentioned that there was a shortfall within the projected projection of wheat crop. The official replied that even with this shortfall of 0.1 million metric tons, the manufacturing of sugarcane, rice and cotton in addition to tomatoes was significantly larger.

Officers additional acknowledged that it could not be potential to indicate much less progress on the idea of knowledge out there to all of the stakeholders due to this fact such an effort would have an effect on the compromise of PBS information.

Afterward, a letter issued by Ahmad Zubair acknowledged that there’s information trending on social and digital media that I resigned from the place of Chief Economist, planning Fee on account of manipulation makes an attempt regarding FY22 GDP progress estimates. I want to state that PBS has the mandate to estimate Nationwide accounts and that the M/PD&SI has no position in issues associated to estimating GDP progress.



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Pakistan is ready to produce gasoline to ships. How did we get right here? 

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After a greater than 4 12 months hiatus, Pakistan is ready to recommence gasoline provide to seafaring ships. The change comes after Pakistan’s Nationwide Refinery Restricted (NRL)  introduced they have been profitable  in producing Very Low Sulphur Furnace Oil (VLSFO) this Monday. 

The event is vital as a result of VLSFO is the one gasoline accepted by the Worldwide Maritime Group for world sea voyages. Now that Pakistan’s nationwide refinery has the aptitude of manufacturing this oil for ships will probably be in a position to provide gasoline for freight which may additionally show to be an enormous enhance to the NRL. 

However why precisely has Pakistan been out  of the sport for the previous 4 years and the way has NRL instantly been in a position to produce the internationally accepted gasoline generally known as ‘bunker gasoline’? 

What’s furnace oil? 

Furnace oil, also called heavy gasoline oil (HFO), is a broad time period encompassing fuels utilised to generate movement and warmth, characterised by their notably excessive viscosity and density. The MARPOL Marine Conference of 1973 defines heavy gasoline oil as having a density exceeding 900 kg/m³ at 15°C or a kinematic viscosity surpassing 180 mm²/s at 50°C. These oils include a major proportion of heavy molecules, together with long-chain hydrocarbons and aromatics with in depth, branched facet chains, lending them their distinctive black hue.

Predominantly used as marine gasoline, HFO is at present essentially the most extensively utilised marine gasoline; nearly all medium and low-speed marine diesel engines are designed to function on heavy gasoline oil. Nevertheless, older steam locomotives and oil-fired energy crops additionally harness vitality from heavy gasoline oils.

Heavy gasoline oil is a residual product derived from the distillation of crude oil. The standard of this residual gasoline is contingent on the standard of the crude oil processed within the refinery. To fulfill varied specs and high quality requirements, these residual fuels are blended with lighter fuels reminiscent of marine fuel oil or marine diesel oil. 

A quintessential distinction of heavy gasoline oils lies of their sulphur content material. Per the requirements set by ISO 8217, the higher restrict of their sulphur content material is firmly capped at 3.5%. The principle lessons based mostly on sulphur content material are HSFO, Low Sulphur Furnace Oil (LSFO), VLSFO, and Extremely Low Sulphur Furnace Oil (ULSFO). 

 

Marine Gas  Most Sulphur Content material 
HSFO  3.5% 
LSFO 1.0%
VLSFO  0.5%
ULSFO 0.1% 

 

VLSFO is a brand new kind of marine gasoline that was launched in January 2020 to adjust to the Worldwide Maritime Group (IMO) regulation that limits the sulphur content material of ship fuels to 0.5%

The potential good points for NRL 

“From my perspective, the transition in the direction of VLSFO signifies a constructive evolution for the sector. HSFO, now an antiquated and deficit-inducing product, has been obliging refineries to curtail manufacturing ranges,” articulates Fahad Rauf, the distinguished Head of Analysis at Ismail Iqbal Securities.

“VLSFO, a most well-liked alternative of the maritime trade, may emerge as a profitable product. The tangible profit can be contingent on the magnitude of the shift from HSFO to VLSFO,” Rauf elaborates.

The capability of VLSFO to bestow fast alleviation to NRL from the plethora of obstacles beleaguering the refinery sector is noteworthy. The exigency to metamorphose the slate in the direction of merchandise boasting increased margins is intense, significantly in an epoch characterised by stringent regulatory compliance and a focus on the underside line the place each subtlety is consequential.

As well as, refineries are grappling with the duty of procuring funding for his or her brownfield enhancement incentives, that are projected to be unveiled by the federal government within the imminent months. For such large-scale endeavors, the importance of greenback fairness is paramount.

The Pakistan Nationwide Transport Company (PNSC), poised to be NRL’s fast patron, had earlier this 12 months in March formalised a memorandum of understanding with ENAR Petroleum Refining Facility for the acquisition of VLSFO. The main points of the association couldn’t be obtained on the time of writing.

Nonetheless, it  is conceivable that PNSC nonetheless harbours unmet demand that NRL may fulfil. Within the unlikely state of affairs of a disagreement, PNSC can be obligated to stick from a regulatory vantage level, rendering a pact between each entities extremely possible.

At current, NRL holds the excellence of being the solitary main oil refinery engaged within the manufacturing of VLSFO. Pakistan Refinery Restricted had launched into manufacturing two years prior however ceased operations shortly thereafter. Whereas curiosity from varied non-public refineries in producing VLSFO has been noticed, no tangible developments have come to fruition as but.



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Energy Division anticipates a restoration of round Rs 150bn inside 3-4 months

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ISLAMABAD: Energy Division has to date recovered appropriately Rs.10 billion throughout its marketing campaign towards electrical energy theft and restoration from energy defaulters, whereas it anticipates a restoration of round Rs. 150 billion inside 3 -4 months.

These details and figures had been introduced by the ability division (Power Ministry) throughout a gathering of the Senate Standing Committee on Energy which met on Tuesday beneath the Chairmanship of Senator Saifullah Abro right here at Previous Pips Corridor, Parliament Lodges.

The Senate Standing Committee on Energy was additionally apprised by the ability division that the electrical energy theft marketing campaign has confirmed to be very fruitful and the ability division was in a position to get well appropriately Rs.10 billion throughout the marketing campaign. It was apprised that the marketing campaign continues in numerous districts and areas of the nation on completely different fashions. The Senate Committee acknowledged the efforts of the ability division and beneficial to offer appreciation certificates to the officers who led the marketing campaign.

The Committee chair beneficial that the restoration ought to be utilized as aid for the folks of Pakistan. The ability division anticipated {that a} restoration of round Rs. 150 billion is predicted inside 3 -4 months.

On the outset of the assembly, Senator Saifullah Abro expressed reservations on the absence of Chairman NEPRA and all its provincial Members from the Committee assembly. He mentioned that NEPRA appears to keep away from the conferences of Senate Energy Committee as a result of they don’t have the braveness to reply the questions raised by the Members on this discussion board.

The Committee chaired instantly sought particulars on the incumbency report of Extra Secretary (AS) Energy Division from January 2021 – December 2021 to find out as to why the Chairman NEPRA is absent from the Committee assembly right this moment and in addition with regard to agenda merchandise pertaining to unlawful extension of KAPCO Energy Plant.

The Chairman Committee inquired on the quantity of vitality cost made to KAPCO Energy Plant whose settlement was already expired in June 2021, the officers replied that Rs. 151 Bn was paid as Power cost to KAPCO Energy Plant out of which 95 computer had been gas costs.

The committee members inquired on the explanations of unlawful extension and mentioned that no matter work between KAPCO Energy Plant and Energy Division came about after the expiry of the settlement might deem to be unlawful. The committee chair mentioned that not even the extension was unlawful however the Energy division doesn’t even maintain the authority to offer extensions to IPPs. Concerning the funds made to IPPs, the officers knowledgeable that beneath coverage 2002 onwards the funds are been paid by NEPRA. The chairman committee inquired that in that case is the case then on which foundation, NEPRA has issued a present trigger discover and sought rationalization on the extension from CPPA-G. The committee deferred the matter for additional deliberation and inquired on the small print of breakup of Rs. 151 billion as vitality cost paid to KAPCO Energy Plant.

The committee additionally sought the advantageous charged to CPPA-G on the identical. The CPPA-G officers additionally briefed the committee concerning the Members of BoD, Kot Addu Energy Firm Restricted members together with its Chairman Lt. Basic (Retd) Sajjad Ghani. The committee sought full particulars concerning the BOD, Members earlier than the subsequent Committee assembly.

The committee whereas deliberating on agenda merchandise relating to the 765 kV double circuit transmission line from Dasu Hydro Energy Station tabled the letter issued by World Financial institution to Energy Division. The letter mentioned that the World Financial institution confirmed that the contract was procured following the World Financial institution Procurement Rules as stipulated within the authorized settlement signed between the World Financial institution and authorities of Pakistan for the US $700 million IBRD mortgage. Nonetheless, the letter mentioned that suggestions relating to the mis-procurement and re-tendering of Lot-1 is inaccurate, the letter identified. The committee apprehended that the ministry (Power Ministry) appears to mis-communicate the target behind acquiring the method particulars strictly in keeping with the WB tips and mentioned that no such particulars are offered which claims that no deviation has occurred which probably result in mis procurement.

The committee chaired inquired from the Energy Division to specify the in accuracies within the Senate suggestions by the World Financial institution. Energy Division mentioned that the NTDC is the procurement company and a committee has already been constituted by NTDC to additional deliberate upon the findings of senate suggestions. The committee chair after thorough deliberation noticed that the idea on which the World Financial institution issued the NOC and termed the venture authorized is simply on the stage sensible data and course of particulars offered by the NTDC.

The committee chair beneficial holding a gathering with the NTDC Board and shutting the matter relating to the mis-procurement of Lot -1 & LoT-II and if the Senate Committee findings discovered incorrect be certain to confess and provides redressal. The committee sought report of the procurement committee inside a fortnight for additional deliberation.

The committee additionally obtained briefing by MD, NESPAK on their consultancy and progress of all tasks in Energy Sector and on ADP venture ACSR bunting conductor Lot -II A.  The chairman committee inquired on the technical expertise required by the M/s Newage Cables Lahore and M/s Henan Tong-Da China. The committee noticed that the expertise of bunting conductor is lacking on the ACSR bunting conductor LoT II A venture in each certified corporations. It was apprised that M/s Newage Cables Lahore emerged because the lowest evaluated substantial responsive on the idea of home desire. The Committee sought total correspondence made between NTDC and NESPAK on the venture to find out the idea of M/s Newage Cables Lahore because the lowest bidder.

The assembly was attended by Senator Bahramand Khan Tangi, Senator Muhammad Asad Ali Khan Junejo Senator Saifullah Sarwar Khan Nyazee, Senator Sana Jamali, Senator Dilawar Khan, Senator Haji Hidayatullah khan and Senator Fida Muhammad.



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Gul Ahmed Textile Mills sees income fall by almost 50% in 2023

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Gul Ahmed Textile Mills Restricted (GATM) wrapped up their fiscal yr 2022-23 with an enormous fall in income. This was acknowledged in a consolidated report launched on Tuesday to the Pakistan Inventory Change (PSX) displaying a 50% lower in income, largely pushed by a excessive price of gross sales and finance prices.

The corporate posted a internet revenue of Rs4.88 billion for the yr as in comparison with Rs9.85 billion which was recorded on the similar time final yr. Because of this, GATM’s earnings per share for fiscal yr 2023 dropped from Rs13.30 final yr to Rs6.62 this yr.

This decline in profitability might be attributed to a considerable enhance in finance prices, which rose by 86.57% year-on-year to achieve Rs7.31 billion in fiscal yr 2023. The rise is attributed to a major enhance in rates of interest all year long. The corporate additionally skilled a virtually 17% year-on-year drop in different earnings, which amounted to Rs82.1 crores in fiscal yr 2023, in comparison with Rs986.92 million final yr.

Whereas the textile producer witnessed a 14% progress in whole income, reaching Rs138.93 billion in comparison with Rs121.81 billion within the earlier yr, its revenue margin contracted from 22.2% in fiscal yr 2022 to twenty% in fiscal yr 2023, as a consequence of greater price of gross sales. The corporate’s working bills elevated by almost 19% year-on-year, totaling to Rs14.69 billion in fiscal yr 2023.

Regardless of the worrying numbers, financial analyst A. A. H. Soomro advised Revenue that the outcomes may actually present a promising development on margin enchancment.

“Within the world contractionary section, fetching excessive gross sales is troublesome. That’s seen with low greenback gross sales on a year-to-year foundation. However, regardless of a 40% plus enhance in monetary prices, backside line progress is strong on a quarterly foundation and prone to proceed,” he stated.

The analyst stated heightened competitiveness in export orders is anticipated, as a consequence of substantial home crop, important forex changes – regardless of an increase in vitality bills.

“Gul Ahmed presents a robust mixture of home and export gross sales, and these outcomes ought to consolation buyers on enhancing prospects of unlocking the valuations,” Soomro acknowledged.

In a associated growth, GATM’s Board of Administrators determined to reclassify Rs23 billion from income reserves to separate capital reserves (un-distributable by the use of dividend), reflecting the character of those reserves extra precisely.

It’s pertinent to say that the board, over time, has mentioned the corporate’s enlargement and diversification efforts, together with substantial investments, have elevated enterprise worth for shareholders. Consequently, the unappropriated income are usually not totally obtainable for dividend distribution.

Gul Ahmed Group has been a textile dealer because the 1900s and initiated its manufacturing operations as Gul Ahmed Textile Mills (GATM) in 1953. Subsequently turning into a publicly listed firm in 1955. GATM, a subsidiary of Gul Ahmed Holdings (Non-public) Restricted, is a complete textile mill specializing in textile product manufacturing and gross sales. Past manufacturing, GATM has ventured into the retail sector, with over 40 shops nationwide.

 



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