One could assume that the general public outcry over the skyrocketing gasoline costs would have impaired gross sales, however that doesn’t appear to be the case. It’s truly Furnace Oil (FO) that has borne a extreme brunt, in accordance with the efficiency of oil advertising corporations throughout July and August.
Regardless of the financial stoop, hovering costs, decrease margins, and forex depreciation, gross sales of Excessive-Pace Diesel (HSD) and Motor Spirit (MS) are on the rise, providing a glimmer of hope amidst the downturn.
Digesting the numbers
In July 2023, gross sales of FO plunged by almost 60%, whereas retail merchandise like MS and HSD registered annual progress. This pattern continued in August, with Oil Advertising and marketing Firm (OMC) volumes witnessing an 8% annual fall, led by a staggering 64% decline in FO. Quite the opposite, HSD and MS incurred a rise of 11% and 13% yearly, respectively.
“The trade did develop considerably on a month-on-month foundation,” says Omar Shafqaat, Chief Working Officer at Taj Gasoline. He explains that this isn’t as a consequence of elevated financial or transport exercise, however as a substitute due to low exercise on account of Eid and Ashura in July. “For Eid, it takes 6-7 days for business exercise to choose up and diesel demand to return to its common. For Ashura as nicely, the 2 days are at about 30% of routine each day demand for each diesel and petrol.”
The month-to-month progress in volumes for August was additionally constructive at 4%, with MS and HSD rising by 2% and 11%, respectively. FO continued its month-to-month fall as nicely, with an 18% decline. General, the second month of FY24 OMC gross sales volumes had been down by 7% yearly to 2.8 million tons as in comparison with 3 million tons within the second month of FY23, with HSD up by 11% yearly, MS up by 8%, and FO down by a staggering 61% yearly.
Shafqaat factors out that “extra related is the year-on-year quantity for the trade,” which exhibits a decline. “It dropped considerably after the worth improve in June 2022. Therefore even with a comparatively decrease base, it has declined additional.”
He additionally provides that “we see a big influence on account of worth improve in addition to an inflow of smuggled diesel which is now available in all markets as much as Lahore.”
The pre-buying break up
There’s hypothesis that the rise in volumes in latest months has been as a consequence of advance shopping for of merchandise in anticipation of additional worth hikes, which was certainly witnessed on September 01, 2023 once more as the worth of petrol elevated from a median worth for June of Rs 253 to Rs 311 on September 01, 2023. The HSD common worth of Rs 262 for June 2023 is as much as Rs 305.36 for September 2023 to this point.
“Pre-buying is a reality,” Shafqaat elucidates, “it occurs with each worth improve, while the reverse occurs with each worth lower.”
The validity of pre-buying is nevertheless vehemently disputed. Sources conveyed to Revenue that such a phenomenon is at the moment not attainable as a result of refineries are working beneath capability, so no matter product they produce is for rapid use. Moreover, on condition that petroleum imports are deliberate upfront and amidst the present foreign exchange crunch, precedence is being given to refiners which makes the possibilities of this much more unbelievable in accordance with them.
Trying forward, Revenue has already coated how final week’s rally in world crude markets is ready to set off one other spherical of upward worth revisions if it continues or if there’s not substantial appreciation by the Pakistani Rupee.
Learn extra: Way forward for gasoline costs bleak as world crude peaks for 2023
If these revisions do come to move, September’s gross sales information won’t paint a rosy image even on a month-on-month foundation.